DConf 2013 Day 3 Talk 1: Metaprogramming in the Real World by Don Clugston

[Walter Bright]

On 6/13/2013 11:25 AM, Steven Schveighoffer wrote:
> I meant much simpler to predict/easier to come out ahead.  Sheesh, so much
> literalism here :)

I'm going to disagree with that one, too!

Consider an S&P 500 index stock, like SPY. It's:

1. trivial to buy and sell - a couple clicks
2. liquid - sell and get your money within minutes
3. trivial to borrow against - just write a check - no papers to sign
4. globally internationalized
5. fairly inflation proof
6. long term gains are fairly reliable
7. you can space out incremental sales in order to avoid a one-time boost into a 
high tax bracket
8. you instantly know exactly what it's worth

A house:

1. hard to buy and sell
2. selling can easily be a year long process to get your money
3. hard to borrow against - need appraisals, approvals, piles of paperwork
4. it's literally nailed to one spot. location location location - bet wrong on 
that, and the economy will easily pass you by
5. reasonably inflation proof
6. long term gains again depend on location, location, location
7. no income averaging on a big gain
8. you never know what it's worth until you have a signed deed of sale, in fact, 
its value can vary tremendously (+-30%) depending on who happens to be looking 
for a house like yours. Zillows has only a vague connection to reality, and is 
only really useful if you have a cookie cutter house in a cookie cutter subdivision.

Yes, I own my home. But it blows as an easy, predictable investment.


You're not going to get a big score investing in SPY. But if you have a regular 
schedule of investing in it, over the long term, it's very very likely you'll be 
just fine.