DConf 2019: Shepherd's Pie Edition

[Laeeth Isharc]

On Thursday, 27 December 2018 at 17:00:05 UTC, Robert M. Münch 
wrote:
> On 2018-12-22 21:38:42 +0000, Laeeth Isharc said:
>
>> On Saturday, 22 December 2018 at 18:47:40 UTC, Robert M. Münch 
>> wrote:
>>> On 2018-12-22 12:18:25 +0000, Mike Parker said:
>>> 
>>>> Thanks to Symmetry Investments, DConf is heading to London! 
>>>> We're still ironing out the details, but I've been sitting 
>>>> on this for weeks and, now that we have a venue, I just 
>>>> can't keep quiet about it any longer.
>>> 
>>> Hi, you should consider the upcoming Brexit chaos, which is 
>>> expect to have a high impact on all airlines. Currently I 
>>> wouldn't bet that all parties involved get things sorted out 
>>> until May...
>> 
>> I would be happy to bet they do. The EU and US are already 
>> agreed.
>> 
>> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46380463
>
> Well, we will see. But it's not the EU and US, but UK and US 
> that agreed after your reference. Since I'm not from the US 
> this information doesn't help a lot. And the significant part 
> of your reference is this: "Theresa May's Brexit agreement with 
> Brussels says that the UK and EU have agreed to negotiate a 
> "comprehensive air transport agreement" for UK-EU flights 
> during the planned transition period but it would not apply if 
> the UK left the EU without a deal. In September the government 
> warned a no-deal Brexit could cause disruption to air travel 
> between the UK and European Union countries."
>
> You might be aware that the "No Deal Scenario" is currently 
> much more likely... but again, everyone is free to do what they 
> want.

In the event of no-deal, flights will continue as before except 
UK operators flying _within_ Europe on domestic or intra-EU 
flights will need to get a license.  UK operators can continue to 
fly to Europe, and we already said the European operators can fly 
here.  This is a relatively recent official confirmation of what 
was always fairly obvious - a negotiating position is not quite 
the same thing as the position in actuality.

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/319768/updated-european-commission-reiterates-flights-will-go-ahead-post-brexit

You can read the technical guidance if you wish.  Naturally it 
comes with the spin you would expect.

And since flights to and from the EU will continue to operate, I 
doubt very much that flights between Britain and anywhere else 
will cease to operate.

Britain has a current account deficit with every European nation 
bar Ireland and I think Malta, meaning we import more than we 
export.  The wilder scenarios painted assume that one of the two 
parties would deliberately sabotage their own economy.  I don't 
think so.

I had lunch with a lawyer who advised Cameron and Osborne in 
their negotiations with the EU.  He has written five books on 
Brexit, approaching it from a technical rather than political 
perspective.  He pioneered the suggestion of enhanced equivalence 
which will likely be the roadmap for financial services.  He says 
Brexit consists of a multitude of small problems which will have 
to be overcome by the people closest to them.  But a no-deal 
Brexit would be fine and quite quickly rather positive.

All of this stuff "if there is a no-deal Brexit, Theresa May 
_could_ run out of insulin" - that word could is like nasal 
demons in UB with C.  It's a funny use of the word could - the 
lawyer called the insulin suggestion an insult to the 
intelligence.  And my sister in law is a partner in a 
pharmaceutical regulatory firm here in Germany where I write 
from, and she agrees the suggestion is nonsense.

There's a lot of such stuff about, generated for partisan 
reasons.  The track record of such suggestions is pretty dire - 
both Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England,and Paul 
Krugman, a former trade economist, haha, suggested that the Bank 
was damaging its reputation by making such political arguments.

So it's best to go to the primary sources and technical 
documentation.  There are more entertaining ways to scare oneself 
if that's what one wants.

But flights will be running as good or bad as they ever do,as 
best I can tell.