[OT] web/desktop dying

Joakim via Digitalmars-d digitalmars-d at puremagic.com
Fri Nov 4 23:00:49 PDT 2016


On Thursday, 3 November 2016 at 06:32:07 UTC, Patrick Schluter 
wrote:
> On Thursday, 3 November 2016 at 06:11:08 UTC, Joakim wrote:
>> On Sunday, 30 October 2016 at 10:04:02 UTC, Patrick Schluter 
>> wrote:
>>> On Sunday, 30 October 2016 at 06:39:42 UTC, Joakim wrote:
>>>>
>>>> It is not worth it, the web is dying.  I was stunned to see 
>>>> this chart of mobile web usage in the US:
>>>>
>>>> https://mobile.twitter.com/asymco/status/777915894659964928
>>>>
>>>> This isn't some third-world country with mostly 2G usage, 
>>>> the web numbers in those places are much worse. Combined 
>>>> with mobile passing even TV for time spent, there is no 
>>>> point in wasting time porting D to a dying platform.
>>>
>>> Yes, because outside of web on mobile nothing else exists... 
>>> bwahahahah
>>
>> Pretty soon it won't:
>>
>> https://mobile.twitter.com/asymco/status/793401867053195264
>>
>
> Even that chart shows a flattening to an asymptote not a linear 
> trend. This means desktop will maube go a little bit down but 
> it won't disappear. What people often forget is that 
> professional office PC will never be completely replaced by 
> mobile.

Nothing is ever "completely replaced"- somebody somewhere is 
still using a mainframe or a UNIX workstation- but yes, PCs will 
basically disappear, just as you never see those old computers 
anymore.  Android 7.0 has a full multi-window mode, just dock 
your smartphone with a monitor and keyboard/mouse and start 
working:

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/03/this-is-android-ns-freeform-window-mode/

Not all devices will come with that enabled, but you can enable 
it yourself on any 7.0 device:

http://www.androidpolice.com/2016/09/19/taskbar-updated-version-1-2-can-now-completely-replace-home-screen/

Now that mobile devices dominate the computing market, they are 
going after the legacy PC market too, by adding the remaining 
features needed.  Smartphones will replace the office PC, just 
like they have already killed off standalone mp3 players, GPS 
devices, handheld consoles, dumbphones, and so on.

> What also happens in that branch (i.e. in office environment) 
> is still a continuation to replace PC application by browser 
> applications. This means that still focussing on good web 
> solutions server or client side is a good investment in any 
> case.

More likely those PC apps will become mobile apps, like Office 
has done.

>> The problem for the desktop browser is that the desktop is 
>> going away, as the linked tweet above shows.
>
> No it is not. Linear extrapolation of an incomplete chart is 
> almost always erroneous.

I pointed out a trend and extrapolated it continuing, but I never 
suggested it would be "linear."  I actually believe there will be 
a collapse in PC sales over the next decade, as the steady slide 
over the last five years will accelerate (see last graphic of 25% 
drop in Windows PC sales):

http://www.asymco.com/2016/11/02/wherefore-art-thou-macintosh/

Smartphones and tablets have gone after the marginal PC uses so 
far, ie around the home where they were overkill anyway, now they 
go after the core uses.

>> I went from using a FreeBSD desktop and a dumbphone five years 
>> ago to an Android smartphone and two Android tablets today, ie 
>> no desktop or laptop since my ultrabook died late last year.  
>> In my household, we went from using two smartphones, two PC 
>> laptops, and a Mac laptop four years ago to three smartphones, 
>> three Android tablets, and a Mac laptop today.
>>
>> This is a shift that is happening in most households, as a PC 
>> overserves most and a mobile device will do.  Many D users are 
>> power users who cling to old tech like the desktop and the 
>> web, so they are missing this massive wave going on right now.
>>  I myself missed the death of the mobile web, as I'm such a 
>> heavy user.
>
> still bwahahaha, web technology will stay a bit longer, 
> panicking is a bit premature yet.

It is already gone- look at the numbers- and I never said 
anything about "panicking," as I actually welcome the move.  The 
web was always decent for publishing and reading, but I have long 
thought it was a bad idea for them to turn it into an app 
platform, as I've said in this forum many times.  All tech lives 
and dies, the PC and the web are no different.


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