[OT] web/desktop dying

[Joakim via Digitalmars-d]

On Wednesday, 9 November 2016 at 16:00:45 UTC, Nick Sabalausky 
wrote:
> On 11/05/2016 02:00 AM, Joakim wrote:
>>
>> Nothing is ever "completely replaced"- somebody somewhere is 
>> still using
>> a mainframe or a UNIX workstation- but yes, PCs will basically
>> disappear, just as you never see those old computers anymore.  
>> Android
>> 7.0 has a full multi-window mode, just dock your smartphone 
>> with a
>> monitor and keyboard/mouse and start working:
>>
>> http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/03/this-is-android-ns-freeform-window-mode/
>>
>
> I'd hardly call that a "full" multi-window mode.

Why?  Note that it has been fleshed out more since that March 
article, as that was a developer preview build of Android 7.0.

> I've been (begrudgingly) using android on a daily basis for 
> years now, and honestly, OS support for freeform windows is the 
> least of what Android needs to be worthwhile as a PC 
> replacement. Hell, even on the desktop, I usually have 
> everything maximized anyway. Even with freeform windows, I'd 
> sooner use *Win8*, of all things, on the desktop than fucking 
> android.
>
> There are four main areas that are currently making Android and 
> absolute shit as a desktop replacement: The OS itself

linux is too stable for you? ;)

> the look&feel style guidelines

Eh, Material Design is fine.  It will evolve as people start 
using Android to get work done on larger LCD monitors.

> the entire 3rd party ecosystem

While there are a lot of Android apps, I agree that there are 
problems with the Play Store and its ecosystem, but nothing that 
can't be fixed on an open platform, that has the possibility to 
install competing app stores too.

> and the form factor. Ie, basically everything.

That's ridiculous.  There's no difference between docking your 
laptop at a KVM at your work desk or docking a smartphone 
instead.  The software on the smartphone is currently slower and 
doesn't have as many pro apps, but many will choose to use the 
smartphone they already have, rather than pay more for a desktop 
or laptop PC they don't need.

> And the idea that plugging in a mouse, keyboard and monitor 
> fixes the form factor issues is ludicrous, because seriously, 
> compare that to them already just *being* there as with a 
> laptop (yea, laptop keyboards and trackpads suck, but not 
> remotely as badly as what's built-in on a smartphone/tablet).

Obviously if you're docked and using a mouse, keyboard, and 
monitor, there is no difference of form factor.  On the go, you 
will have options like this, for just $100 more:

https://the-superbook-turn-your-smartphone-into-a-laptop-f.backerkit.com/hosted_preorders

I already have a smartphone.  If I want a laptop, I'll pay $100 
and dock it.  If I want to work at a desk with a KVM switch, I 
have to buy the keyboard, mouse, and monitor regardless.  That is 
a cost and ubiquity advantage that the PC cannot match.

Point-and-shoot cameras and standalone GPS devices are still 
better than using your smartphone, but nobody buys them anymore 
because your smartphone is good enough and always with you.

> Or compared to, you know, not having to deal with a plugging in 
> a hub, connecting all that shit, clumsily propping the stupid 
> little thing up, OR bluetooth for that matter, because, let's 
> be honest, fucking NOBODY other than us power users can figure 
> out that obtuse "pairing" shit.

With USB-C, you will simply plug your phone into a dock connected 
to a KVM switch and go, you know, what you do with your laptop if 
you use it docked now.  Wireless protocols like Bluetooth and 
Miracast will eventually kill off all the wires, and be even 
easier.

> But it probably will take over anyway, because, let's face it, 
> when the fuck has being complete and utter fucking shit ever 
> stopped a computing tech from becoming a runaway success?: 
> Windows, C++, Java2, Web-as-a-platform, 
> JS/Ajax/Toolkit-overload, walled-garden services, zero-privacy 
> private surveillance, non-tactile "touch"-screens, intrusive 
> forced-update systems, removing-features-as-a-feature, 
> widescreens for general computing purposes, iOS/Android 
> "phones", etc.

That's a very mixed bag.  Yes, some of that tech was mediocre or 
a step backwards, but most people who were around in the golden 
age you admire get a lot more done on computing devices today.  
Computers have become so powerful that they can make up for a lot 
of those dumb decisions.  We do need to weed out a lot of those 
mistakes over time though.

> People are goddamned morons, and you know what? These 
> motherfuckers DESERVE to have their privacy stolen, waste all 
> their time futzing around with fucking broken software & 
> devices, lose their data, and die while text-driving (or while 
> letting GPS/Google drive their car, which mark my words, will 
> be the next thing). I'd hope the whole fucking world burns, but 
> it looks like I don't *need* to hope for that, it's pretty much 
> guaranteed at this point anyway.

I agree with most of those criticisms, but that's straying far 
afield from the smartphone killing off the PC and the web, which 
you have also lumped in with your list of bad tech.  So you like 
at least some of the changes mobile is bringing, even if you 
don't necessarily like some of the decisions made.  But mobile is 
dominant now and is the future for getting work done too; a lot 
of those problems will be fixed over time.

On Thursday, 10 November 2016 at 10:14:34 UTC, qznc wrote:
> I don't believe that.
>
> Software developers need a big machine, because these days you 
> have to run a bunch of VMs to get anything done. Unless we 
> migrate to Cloud-IDEs, we will use PCs in the foreseeable 
> future and I don't see Cloud-IDEs happening.

They do?

http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/working-on-android/
http://decoding.io/using-ipad-pro-as-a-web-developer/

The vast majority of software developers don't have a "big 
machine," most don't do anything with VMs.  For those who have 
multi-minute or more builds, we will use the cloud a lot more 
than we do today, as that's one of the few places it makes sense.

> Office Workers who are happy with MS Office alone could use 
> Android. However, there is always this old internal app, which 
> barely works on newer Windows versions. It will take a few 
> decades until those are replaced.

There will be emulators for those legacy apps until they're 
replaced, just as Apple provided for OS 9 when they switched to 
OS X.

> Executives could move to pure mobile and probably already did. 
> Reading reports and writing emails works well already.
>
> I believe the PC is just as tenacious as the x86 architecture, 
> which is still backwards compatible over the last three decades.

Both are declining, as the Asymco link I gave above showed, and 
will likely collapse into irrelevance soon.

On Thursday, 10 November 2016 at 10:45:26 UTC, Chris wrote:
> I've adopted this philosophy:
>
> "Sit on the bank of a river and wait: Your enemy's corpse will 
> soon float by."
>
> I just sit and wait, and indeed Ajax and other technologies 
> have been floating by ... Stick to what you know is good and 
> don't jump on the latest bandwagon that happens to pass by. In 
> terms of technology, you will save a lot of time, money and 
> energy (no, I never "learned" Ajax:)

AJAX seemed promising when the alternative was desktop apps, but 
they went way overboard with HTML5 and mobile is displacing it.

On Thursday, 10 November 2016 at 12:37:59 UTC, Kagamin wrote:
> On Sunday, 30 October 2016 at 06:39:42 UTC, Joakim wrote:
>> It is not worth it, the web is dying.  I was stunned to see 
>> this chart of mobile web usage in the US:
>>
>> https://mobile.twitter.com/asymco/status/777915894659964928
>
> They just spend increasingly more time in twitter when not at 
> home.

No, twitter is a small chunk and dropping, not to mention being 
available on the web too:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/06/people-are-spending-much-less-time-on-social-media-apps-said-report.html

You're right that people waste a lot more time with social media 
on mobile, but the point is that they're increasingly not using 
PCs for that, and PC sales are dropping as a result.

On Thursday, 10 November 2016 at 16:48:01 UTC, Nick Sabalausky 
wrote:
> I hope you're right, because I definitely need to use an 
> "old-fashioned" machine in order to get things done without 
> wasting enormous time & effort.

So I take it you're still running a UNIX workstation?  Or is it a 
Data General minicomputer? ;)

> But I've experienced this pattern far too many times to be 
> confident in that:
>
> - I use XYZ all the time, just like everyone else. It has a few 
> things that could use improvement, and would be entirely 
> feasible to fix, but for the most part works fine.
>
> - Instead of XYZ's existing, easily solvable, problems actually 
> BEING solved by those in a position to do so, somebody (maybe 
> even the same people) comes out with UVW, with tons of fanfare 
> because of one or two little things it does better. But, for 
> the MOST part, UVW is total shit and vastly inferior to XYZ.
>
> - UVW's hype begets more hype as people worldwide mistake hype 
> (and "newness") for worthiness.
>
> - Most people delude themselves into pretending UVW's downsides 
> (compared to XYZ) don't exist, because after all, it's newer 
> and has hype so therefore it's unquestionably better. Or, they 
> just simply tolerate UVW's downsides, because, again, it's the 
> hot new shit, so it MUST be the right tool for the job, right?
>
> - Eventually, more and more people are forced to migrate from 
> XYZ to UVW because of both market and industry pressures and 
> because of XYZ becoming harder to obtain and getting less and 
> less attention, shrinking ecosystem, etc.
>
> - UVW marginalizes XYZ.
>
> - A small faction of UVW users actually recognize UVW's 
> downsides (or at least recognize there are "dinosaurs" who are 
> holding out and must be converted for their own good). So the 
> UVW folk make a half-assed amateur attempt to "fix" the 
> downsides, only UVW still never actually reaches parity with 
> XYZ. And why bother trying? XYZ's already been all but killed 
> off.
>
> I've seen it over, and over, and over. Unless people finally 
> wise up and quit mistaking hype for worthiness (highly 
> unlikely), I fear the same is poised to happen to PC's. I'm 
> already forced to rely on these god-awful "modern" smartphones 
> far more than I'd like to.

You do realize that the PC was once the "vastly inferior" 
alternative to UNIX workstations? :) I don't disagree that 
there's a hype cycle and that the new entrant is initially worse. 
  There's a name for that, it's called disruption:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation

Other than that, what you're describing is that the mass market 
doesn't care for niche features that early adopters want.  If 
you're in that niche, great, somebody will make an expensive, 
superior option for you.  You expressed interest in the Ubuntu 
phone before, there will always be a niche that serves your needs 
better.

On Friday, 11 November 2016 at 11:15:10 UTC, Chris wrote:
> On Friday, 11 November 2016 at 10:56:31 UTC, Chris wrote:
>> On Thursday, 10 November 2016 at 16:48:01 UTC, Nick Sabalausky 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> I hope you're right, because I definitely need to use an 
>>> "old-fashioned" machine in order to get things done without 
>>> wasting enormous time & effort.
>>>
>>> [...]
>>
>> Sit on the bank of a river and wait: Your enemy's corpse will 
>> soon float by.
>
> I remember about 8, 9 years ago I warned that Apple was paying 
> too much attention to the iPhone and that it was neglecting the 
> Desktop/Laptop users. Who cares, right? I read about a year ago 
> that Apple had a problem and sales were dropping, because they 
> were neglecting their Desktop/Laptop users. Well, what can I 
> say. I stopped using Apple years ago, because they became the 
> same as (or worse than) MS. This whole App-store lock-in, the 
> whole you-have-to-register-or-die-approach. F**k you! Enter 
> Linux.

Read the Asymco Mac link I gave above, Mac sales and revenue have 
been inching up for years.  Apple has around 25-30% profit share 
in the desktop/laptop market, despite selling many less devices, 
just as they just took 100% of the profits in the smartphone 
sector last quarter, despite selling only 15% of them:

http://fortune.com/2016/11/04/apple-smartphone-profits/

They are not anywhere close to dying: they are the largest, most 
successful company on the planet.  I agree that that cannot last, 
partially because they are so closed as you say, but so far it is 
one of the reasons for their success.  Reports are that the 
recent Pro laptops, that some pros are complaining about, are 
selling better than ever.

Most consumers want a dumbed-down, locked-down computing device.  
Apple goes too far in that direction, and that will eventually 
hurt them, but the overall trend is towards giving the masses 
what they want.