Mobile is the new PC and AArch64 is the new x64

[Joakim]

On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 10:25:30 UTC, Dave Jones wrote:
> On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 04:47:11 UTC, Joakim wrote:
>> On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 01:03:27 UTC, Dave Jones wrote:
>>>> I know a lot of people who did, which explains the 28% drop 
>>>> in PC sales since they peaked in 2011, the year after the 
>>>> iPad came out. Many of those people who used to buy PCs have 
>>>> switched to tablets and other mobile devices.
>>>
>>> Yet PC sales are up this year, mobile is down, and tablet 
>>> sales have fallen for 3 years in a row.
>>
>> Eh, these are all mostly mature markets now, so slight 
>> quarterly dips or gains don't matter much anymore. What does 
>> it matter that PC sales were up 2-3% last quarter when 7 times 
>> as many smartphones and mobile devices were sold in that same 
>> quarter?
>
> Some analysts have predicted that PC sales will plateau at some 
> point and if that's where we're at now then 30% drop in 
> shipments is not death of the market.

I see no reason why they would plateau, looks like wishful 
thinking to me.

>> I say that almost 30% drop in PC sales over the last 7 years 
>> is mostly due to the rise of mobile.
>
> I think a large part of it is that PCs got fast enough for most 
> people about 7-10 years ago. So it was a combination of mobile, 
> and people no longer needing to get newer faster machines. The 
> upgrade cycle moved from "I need a newer faster computer" to 
> "I'll wait till my current system is worn out". (For a lot of 
> people anyway)

Sure, that's part of it, but that suggests that once smartphones 
reach that performance threshold, they will replace PCs 
altogether. I think we've reached that threshold now.

>>> And just because there's been a trend for 5 or 6 years doesnt 
>>> mean it will continue so inevitably.
>>
>> Sure, but these trends almost never reverse. ;)
>
> It doesnt need to reverse for "the PC is dead" to be false.

Plateaus almost never happen, it's not the natural order of 
things.

For example, newspapers hoped their ad revenue had plateaued from 
2000-2005, then they plunged:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Naa_newspaper_ad_revenue.svg

I've predicted that a similar plunge is about to happen to PC 
sales.

>>> I actually think most people would prefer a separate desktop 
>>> and mobile device, whether that desktop is just the size of 
>>> pack of cigarettes, or a big box with 5 fans in it.
>>
>> Why? Given how price-sensitive the vast majority of the 
>> computing-buying public is- that excludes the Apple sheeple 
>> who actually seem to get a hard-on from rising iPhone prices, 
>> all the better for them to show how much money they've lucked 
>> into by brandishing their "gold" iPhone ;) - I don't see most 
>> willing to spend twice on two devices, that could be replaced 
>> by just one. Until recently, they didn't have a choice, as you 
>> couldn't use your mobile device as a desktop, but the 
>> just-released devices I linked in the first post in this 
>> thread are starting to change that.
>
> Because for about £300 you can get an intel NUC system with 
> 120GB SSD, which is more powerful and more upgradeable than 
> your £700 mobile device. And some people still want that. And 
> because most people have more than one TV, some have multiple 
> phones, phones and tablets, and desktops, and multiple games 
> consoles. And they still use them all in different situations.

That's more on the high end, where people use many devices. On 
the low- to mid-end of the market, where most of the sales 
happen, people are happy to buy fewer devices that get the job 
done.

> This "one device" thing is your preference and you're 
> projecting it onto everyone else.

Looks to me like you're the one projecting here. People used to 
buy standalone mp3 players, GPS devices, point-and-shoot cameras, 
handheld gaming consoles, etc., etc. Sales of all those 
standalone devices have been devastated by the smartphone; here's 
just one example of what happened to camera sales after the 
smartphone took over, which I've linked on this forum before:

https://petapixel.com/2017/03/03/latest-camera-sales-chart-reveals-death-compact-camera/

I find it strange that you think the PC won't also be rolled up 
by mobile like this.

>>> Yes you can bring up examples of people who made mistakes 
>>> predicting the future but that works both ways. You're just 
>>> as guilty of seeing a two points and drawing a straight line 
>>> though them.
>>
>> Except none of these examples or my own prediction are based 
>> on simple extrapolation between data points. Rather, we're 
>> analyzing the underlying technical details and capabilities 
>> and coming to different conclusions about whether the status 
>> quo is likely to remain. So I don't think any of us are 
>> "guilty" of your charge.
>
> Of course you are, you're making predictions and assuming the 
> trends will continue, you assume the technical details are all 
> important. Im saying they are only part of it, that people have 
> requirements / preferences outside of how powerful the device 
> is. Lots of people were predicting ebooks would kill the real 
> book market a few years back, turns out people still prefer to 
> have an actual paper book to read, ebooks peaked a few years 
> ago and real books have been in growth ever since. That was 
> people seeing a trend and assuming it would continue just like 
> you are.

No, print is pretty much dead, it's just hard to track because so 
many ebooks have gone indie now:

https://www.geekwire.com/2018/traditional-publishers-ebook-sales-drop-indie-authors-amazon-take-off/

What are these magical "requirements/preferences" that you cannot 
name, that you believe will keep print alive? That will be really 
funny. :)