Mobile is the new PC and AArch64 is the new x64

[Gambler]

On 9/12/2018 11:38 AM, Joakim wrote:> On Wednesday, 12 September 2018 at
06:41:38 UTC, Gambler wrote:
>> On 9/10/2018 9:43 AM, Joakim wrote:
>>> Yes, I know, these devices won't replace your quad-core Xeon
>>> workstation with 32-64 GBs of RAM anytime soon, but most people don't
>>> need anywhere near that level of compute. That's why PC sales keep
>>> dropping while mobile sales are now 6-7X that per year:
>> I'm all for supporting modern open CPU architectures. At the same time,
>> I fear that the specific trend you're describing here (people ditching
>> PCs for cellphones/tablets) is effectively a reversal of the PC
>> revolution.
>>
>> For the last 30+ years people benefited from "trickle down computing".
>> They had access to PCs that were equivalent to cutting edge servers of
>> 6-7 years prior. They had ability to choose their operating system,
>> expand and upgrade their hardware and install any software they wanted.
>>
>> All of this is breaking down right now.
>
> Yes and no, it is true that that is the way tech  _used_ to diffuse.
> However, do you know what the largest tech company in the world is right
> now? It's not IBM, Apple, HP, or Microsoft, ie none of the server or PC
> companies. It's Apple, which doesn't sell into the server or traditional
> enterprise markets almost at all and only has 15-20% unit share in the
> mobile market.
>
> In other words, consumer tech markets are _much_ larger than the
> server/enterprise markets that used to lead tech R&D, which means
> consumer tech like mobile is what leads the way now.
>
> As for choosing your own OS, that's still possible, but as always, it
> can be tough to get drivers for your hardware:
>
>
https://together.jolla.com/question/136143/wiki-available-devices-running-sailfish-os/
>
>
> And if you simply want to tinker with the Android OS on your device,
> there are many ways to do that:
>
> https://www.xda-developers.com/how-to-install-custom-rom-android/
>
> No need to expand and upgrade your hardware when prices keep dropping in
> this Darwinian market. There's now a $500 phone with a faster chip than
> the one I got just 7 months back for $700:
>
> https://m.newegg.com/products/N82E16875220078
>
> As for installing any software you want, Android allows it: it's how I
> debug the apps I build on my phone or tablet. The iPhone doesn't, but
> it's a minority of the mobile market.
>
>> Intel got lazy without competition and high-end CPU architectures
>> stagnated. All the cutting-edge computing is done on NVidia cards
>> today. It requires hundreds of gigabytes of RAM, tens of terabytes of
>> data and usage of specialized computing libraries. I very much doubt
>> this will "trickle down" to mobile in foreseeable future. Heck, most
>> developer laptops today have no CUDA capabilities to speak of.
>
> I question the need for such "cutting-edge computing" in the first
> place, but regardless, it has already moved down to mobile and other
> edge devices:
>
>
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/10/the-pixel-2-contains-a-custom-google-soc-the-pixel-visual-core/
>
>
https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/26/17616140/google-edge-tpu-on-device-ai-machine-learning-devkit
>
>
>> Moreover, mobile devices are locked down by default and it's no
>> trivial task to break out of those walled gardens. IIRC, Apple has an
>> official policy of not allowing programming tools in their app store.
>> Alan Kay had to personally petition Steve Jobs to allow Scratch to be
>> distributed, so kids could learn programming. I believe the general
>> policy is still in place.
>
> They have their own app for that now:
>
> https://www.apple.com/swift/playgrounds/
>
>> Android is better, but it's still a horror to do real work on,
>> compared to any PC OS. Fine, you rooted it, installed some compilers
>> and so on. How will you share your software with fellow Android users?
>
> You seem to have missed all the posts I've made here before about native
> Android support for ldc: :) _I have never rooted any of my Android
> devices_. Compiling D code on most any Android device is as simple as
> installing an app from the official Play Store and typing a single
> command, `apt install ldc`:
>
> https://wiki.dlang.org/Build_D_for_Android
>
> The instructions there even show you how to package up an Android GUI
> app, an apk, on Android itself, by using some other packages available
> in that Android app.
>
>> In essence, we are seeing the rapid widening of two digital divides.
>> The first one is between users and average developers. The second one
>> is between average developers and researchers at companies like
>> Google. I very much doubt that we will see an equivalent of today's
>> high-end machine learning server on user's desk, let alone in anyone's
>> pocket, within 7 years.
>
> I disagree on both counts. First off, people were running supercomputers
> and UNIX workstations while you were piddling along on your PC decades
> ago. That changed nothing about what you were able to learn and
> accomplish on your PC. In fact, you were probably much better off than
> they were, as the PC skills you picked up were likely in much more
> demand than their supercomputing abilities. ;)
>
> It's similar today. Billions of people can now access programming
> through that open-source Termux app that can be installed on almost any
> Android device. That's _HUGE_ for the user, and D is one of only about
> 15 programming languages currently available in that app, and one of
> only 5 that eventually compile down to native assembly, alongside Vala,
> Go, C, and C++.
>
> As for machine learning researchers and the like, I think that's way
> overhyped, as this guy says:
>
> https://blog.piekniewski.info/2018/05/28/ai-winter-is-well-on-its-way/
>
> I'm confident that the app market will continue being much larger than
> the cloud/research market you're concerned about, though both are due
> for a shakeout.
>
>> My only hope is that newer AMD processors and popularity of VR rigs
>> may help narrow these divides.
>
> I doubt either of those will matter at all anytime soon.
You're right about APKs. Not sure whether it changed since I looked into
it, or I didn't read the docs correctly in the first place. The overall
dev/distribution process, though, still looks... uh, involved compared
to compiling and running an executable on PC.

In general, I am still convinced of the overall negative effect of
mobile devices on computing. They are designed to be used mostly for
consumption and social sharing. They have a lot of limitations that
currently drag the whole IT ecosystem down.

Some excellent high-level criticisms:

https://www.fastcompany.com/40435064/what-alan-kay-thinks-about-the-iphone-and-technology-now

http://worrydream.com/ABriefRantOnTheFutureOfInteractionDesign/

Specific Example #1:
Web design had been devastated by touchscreens. Instead of figuring out
how to create more powerful interfaces designers spend their mental
capacity on how to cram information onto tiny screens of unknown
orientation. The vocabulary of reliably available user interactions has
shrunk to actions people can do with a single thumb. Worst of all, this
is spreading to desktop apps. I've seen in this in my day-to-day job.

Specific Example #2:
People brought up on mobile devices do not know how to type on a keyboard:
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201803290068.html
This is not limited to Japan. Again, I've seen this in real life.

Do you think that someone who can't type on a keyboard will be
able to use _Unix terminal emulation_ to create software? Termux is a
cool project, but it doesn't target "billions of people". It targets a
handful of experienced Linux users who want to fiddle with Android.

And yes, we do need computing power for new things. I agree with that
article on machine learning hype. But that doesn't change the fact that
without all the video cards modern machine learning architectures would
be impractical, whether or not you consider them particularly useful or
good. Computing power was the enabler.