Mobile is the new PC and AArch64 is the new x64

[Dave Jones]

On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 15:11:42 UTC, Joakim wrote:
> On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 10:25:30 UTC, Dave Jones wrote:
>
>> Some analysts have predicted that PC sales will plateau at 
>> some point and if that's where we're at now then 30% drop in 
>> shipments is not death of the market.
>
> I see no reason why they would plateau, looks like wishful 
> thinking to me.

Might be, but so is trying to convince everyone your predictions 
are correct so they will focus their work on the issues important 
to you.


>> I think a large part of it is that PCs got fast enough for 
>> most people about 7-10 years ago. So it was a combination of 
>> mobile, and people no longer needing to get newer faster 
>> machines. The upgrade cycle moved from "I need a newer faster 
>> computer" to "I'll wait till my current system is worn out". 
>> (For a lot of people anyway)
>
> Sure, that's part of it, but that suggests that once 
> smartphones reach that performance threshold, they will replace 
> PCs altogether. I think we've reached that threshold now.

If it was just about performance, but it's not.


>>>> And just because there's been a trend for 5 or 6 years 
>>>> doesnt mean it will continue so inevitably.
>>>
>>> Sure, but these trends almost never reverse. ;)
>>
>> It doesnt need to reverse for "the PC is dead" to be false.
>
> Plateaus almost never happen, it's not the natural order of 
> things.

OK the market stabilises.


>> Because for about £300 you can get an intel NUC system with 
>> 120GB SSD, which is more powerful and more upgradeable than 
>> your £700 mobile device. And some people still want that. And 
>> because most people have more than one TV, some have multiple 
>> phones, phones and tablets, and desktops, and multiple games 
>> consoles. And they still use them all in different situations.
>
> That's more on the high end, where people use many devices. On 
> the low- to mid-end of the market, where most of the sales 
> happen, people are happy to buy fewer devices that get the job 
> done.

Most households have more devices than ever before, and hardware 
is only getting cheaper. The idea that people will have to choose 
just one device is plainly wrong.


> I find it strange that you think the PC won't also be rolled up 
> by mobile like this.

Can you put a 3GB hard drive in your phone? Or a high end 
graphics card? Or a soundcard with balanced outputs?


>>>> Yes you can bring up examples of people who made mistakes 
>>>> predicting the future but that works both ways. You're just 
>>>> as guilty of seeing a two points and drawing a straight line 
>>>> though them.
>>>
>>> Except none of these examples or my own prediction are based 
>>> on simple extrapolation between data points. Rather, we're 
>>> analyzing the underlying technical details and capabilities 
>>> and coming to different conclusions about whether the status 
>>> quo is likely to remain. So I don't think any of us are 
>>> "guilty" of your charge.
>>
>> Of course you are, you're making predictions and assuming the 
>> trends will continue, you assume the technical details are all 
>> important. Im saying they are only part of it, that people 
>> have requirements / preferences outside of how powerful the 
>> device is. Lots of people were predicting ebooks would kill 
>> the real book market a few years back, turns out people still 
>> prefer to have an actual paper book to read, ebooks peaked a 
>> few years ago and real books have been in growth ever since. 
>> That was people seeing a trend and assuming it would continue 
>> just like you are.
>
> No, print is pretty much dead, it's just hard to track because 
> so many ebooks have gone indie now:
>
> https://www.geekwire.com/2018/traditional-publishers-ebook-sales-drop-indie-authors-amazon-take-off/
>
> What are these magical "requirements/preferences" that you 
> cannot name, that you believe will keep print alive? That will 
> be really funny. :)

You obviously didn't research thoroughly enough, the site that 
was the source for the geekwire article shows quite clearly that 
print books still outsell ebooks almost twice over.

http://authorearnings.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Slide29.jpg

and yes that's with indie published books included.

Another interesting thing from that report was the average price 
of indie ebooks was $2.95

http://authorearnings.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Slide26.jpg

So even selling ebooks for peanuts cant catch them up.