Mobile is the new PC and AArch64 is the new x64

[Laurent Tréguier]

On Friday, 21 September 2018 at 00:55:25 UTC, RhyS wrote:
> The PC market will change but dying is a big word.

So I'm stuck between "smartphones overtaking PC's" which I've 
been told has already happened, and "PC's dying" which apparently 
has too strong of a meaning...

> PC sales have dropped over the years for multiple reasons:
>
> * Adoption of smartphones and tablets
> * PC hardware getting so powerful, that people have little 
> reason to upgrade
> * Consoles taking over PC for couch gaming
>
> But ...
>
> PC are a integral part of our daily business life. This is a 
> market where PC decline is hard simply because the flexibility 
> that PCs offer.
>
> You can do a lot with a smartphone and tablet but a lot of 
> those tasks are way harder or time consuming then doing them on 
> a PC.

Things can evolve. Maybe in the future we'll simply talk to our 
phones all the time with good enough voice command software 
instead of typing on a keyboard ? Who knows.

> I can install termux on my phone but no way i will program for 
> hours on a 6" screen. Let alone all the IDE and debugging tools 
> i that are not available ( lets not start Vim discussions, 
> thank you very much ).

Don't worry, I'm not the one who's going to lecture you on vim 
being the best editor. I only ever use vim when git launches it 
to type a commit message (that is... if I haven't set 
`EDITOR=nano`).
However, even if you won't program on a smartphone, maybe future 
generations of developers could at some point. If some people 
started learning on a smartphone they could get used to it and 
just continue on the platform they're comfortable with. (that's 
really speculation, I have no idea if it could actually happen)

> You can attach a keyboard to your phone, a bigger screen to 
> your phone and you have half a PC. But you are still missing 
> the software...

That can change, software can be ported to Android after all 
(like LDC).

> We will probably move to a hybrid solution like this in the 
> future, where people can use their smartphones as PCs ( with 
> attachments for productivity ) but its a LONG road to get even 
> close to the same level that a basic PC offers in terms of 
> power and flexibility.

A huge chunk of development nowadays is web development, which 
doesn't require all that much power AFAIK.
You're right on flexibility though.

> A smartphone is nothing else then a smaller tablet, what is 
> nothing else then a less flexible laptop, what is nothing else 
> then a compacter and not flexible PC.
>
> Just basic concept like multi windows handling is like a alien 
> idea on smartphones and badly done. Even Windows 3.1 was more 
> capable on this part. Currently smartphones are not designed 
> for the creativity and flexibility you need.
>
> Can they become this? Sure ... but not with the current mobile 
> operating systems. Android is a resource hog ( JVM thank you 
> very much ) that uses more memory then my Windows 10 
> installation while offering less flexibility! Microsoft tried 
> and fell flat on their face.

Out of curiosity, how did you come to such a situation regarding 
Android vs Windows 10 ? Win 10 on my machine takes at least 2Gb 
of RAM, Android certainly doesn't on my phone...

> Its possible we may see devices that are plenty powerful to do 
> day to day tasks and see PCs become specialized tools requiring 
> (high paid) experts. But smartphones will always be limited 
> with cooling and power usage compared to a full blown pc. The 
> only way to mitigate this is by having servers offload 
> intensive tasks.

Just like desktop computers will always be limited with cooling 
and power usage compared to any super-computer from the NASA.

> I do not see PCs dying out, just changing in nature. A 
> smartphone is a PC, just one that is less flexible and is power 
> limited because of its size. And that law will always be true. 
> If you can put X power in a small device, you can put X * 10 in 
> a bigger device, you can put X * 100 in a even bigger device.

That law will always be true, yes. But if we can cram more and 
more in terms of power in less and less in terms of size, at some 
point we could have enough power in a very small device.

> And do not be so sure that ARM is the future... I have several 
> NUCs around here and those things are darn powerful ( think 8 
> year old PC ) these days, with a very low power usage ( 6W ). 
> And Risk-V is coming up...

I never said anything about ARM being the future.

> The PC world as we know, never stops changing. But predictions 
> that X will die are wrong. They simply evolve. A 
> Smartphone/Tablet is a PC, so anybody making claims how PCs are 
> dying, is simply stating that PCs are simple evolving into 
> different forms.

You're right; that was a wrong wording again. I should have 
talked about "classic desktop computers" instead of just "PC". 
(but "PC" is shorter to write and I'm lazy)

> And by the way, smartphone sales are also starting to plateau 
> because people are less fast on replacing their phones these 
> days. If it was not for the battery dying on people, people 
> will hold on for years these days. Wait until we have electric 
> cars and those batteries *ha*... forced redundant, you bet your 
> ass on it. So do not be so happy about PCs changing because the 
> change is not in the interest of the consumer. No reuse, forced 
> redundancy, ... Great for companies, bad for consumers like us.

I never said I was happy with this potential change. I know that 
a lot of companies care about money and not about their 
consumers, and I also don't fancy the idea of working on a 
smartphone. But just because I don't like it doesn't mean it 
can't happen...