Program logic bugs vs input/environmental errors

[eles via Digitalmars-d]

On Tuesday, 7 October 2014 at 23:49:37 UTC, Timon Gehr wrote:
> On 10/08/2014 12:10 AM, Nick Sabalausky wrote:
>> On 10/07/2014 06:47 AM, "Ola Fosheim =?UTF-8?B?R3LDuHN0YWQi?=
>> <ola.fosheim.grostad+dlang at gmail.com>" wrote:
>>> On Tuesday, 7 October 2014 at 08:19:15 UTC, Nick Sabalausky

> What is this reason?

This one:

Result of coin tossing is independent at any current attempt. It 
does not depend of past or future results. Probability is 0.5

On the other hand, obtaining a series with 100 heads in a row is 
very small (exactly because of the independence).

Obtaining a series with 101 heads in a row is even smaller, so 
people will assume that the 101 tossing should probably give a 
"tails".

But they forget that the probability of a 101 series where first 
100 are heads and the 101 is tails is exactly *the same* as the 
probability of a 101 series of heads.

They compare the probability of a 101 series of heads with the 
probability of a series of 100 heads instead of comparing it 
against a series with first 100 heads and the 101rd being a tail.

It is the bias choice (we have tendency to compare things that 
are easier - not more pertinent - to compare).