D could catch this wave: web assembly

[Joakim via Digitalmars-d]

On Sunday, 21 June 2015 at 18:51:41 UTC, Nick Sabalausky wrote:
> On 06/21/2015 05:07 AM, Joakim wrote:
> >
> > Simply dumping more features on top of the old web stack
> > is a recipe for failure.
> >
>
> Meh, it seems to be working for them so far ;) But I agree, 
> it's a bad approach, and hopefully will finally collapse.

What's amazing is how long this house of cards keeps jiggling on, 
and even worse, how many people actually think it's something 
worthwhile!  It can't be destroyed soon enough.

> > Very responsive because they're made up of trivially simple
> line art,
> > perhaps.
>
> I happen to like that aesthetic style, really. :) But of course 
> an image format needs to be more general.

Actually, I like that "cartoon" style too, wish more people used 
it.  I'm guessing they don't only because it's considered too 
simple or not as serious.  But I bet SVG would be slow even for 
that, particularly if it was animated.

I really liked the new Fisher-Price style of desktop Windows 8, 
along with better visualizations like the graph when copying 
files.  Damn sight better than the OSX-aping Windows 7, with the 
unnecessary glass and reflections everywhere, though it was 
pretty at first.

> > On Sunday, 21 June 2015 at 07:38:02 UTC, Nick Sabalausky
> wrote:
> >> On 06/21/2015 01:42 AM, Joakim wrote:
> > I have almost 50 GBs of storage on my tablet, between the
> built-in flash
> > and an SD card, about half what I have on my ultrabook.
>
> 50GB? That's it? I have more than that in music alone. (And no, 
> streaming music services is not an improvement. Although it is 
> occasionally a nice supplement.)
>
> My two most recent laptops, I've upgraded to 1TB HDDs. Anything 
> less than that in local storage feels cramped. Plus then I have 
> an old desktop with about 2.5-3TB between three drives. And 
> three USB3 drives ranging from a few hundred GB to 1TB. And a 
> USB2 @ 250GB.

Heh, I'd say you're pretty unusual.  Whenever I ask normal people 
how much disk space they have, they have no idea, and when I 
check their devices for myself, they're inevitably only using 
around 10-20% of the 16-32 GBs on their tablets or 80-500 GBs on 
their laptops.

> > If I weren't
> > filling that 50 GBs up with many GBs of HD video,
>
> VMs also soak up a lot of space. (just sayin')

I'm up to 22 GBs of VMs right now.

> > that's plenty of space for most people.
>
> To marginalize desktops/laptops, mobile doesn't need to win 
> over "most people". Those are the people they've already won 
> over. It exactly us dev and power users that they need to win 
> over now. And they can't do that by settling for whatever works 
> for "most people".

The vast majority of current desktop/laptop users are only stuck 
with them because they bought them before mobile took off or they 
need a multi-window UI for certain apps or certain desktop 
software that hasn't been ported to mobile yet, ie there's no 
fundamental reason they couldn't use mobile devices instead.

Of the 300 million PCs sold last year, I'd say 95+% could make 
the transition to mobile devices once they have multi-window UIs 
and all the same software.  The remaining 3-5% may never make the 
transition.

> > As for peripherals, you're talking printers and
> > scanners?  Do people even use those anymore? :)
>
> Yes. They're not sexy and don't generate "buzz", but that 
> doesn't mean they aren't relied on. (Personal observation: The 
> modern fashion-oriended tech sector seems to have major trouble 
> recognizing that "buzzworthy" and "important" are not the same 
> thing).

Seems like most of those are going to wifi/bluetooth connections 
that are easily controlled by mobile devices also.

> > If there's any demand
> > for those at all, the dock for your smartphone will have a
> USB hub that
> > supports them.
> >
>
> Yea. ONE usb port (that needs an adapter to be able to use just 
> about anything out there besides charging) for everything to 
> get funneled and crammed into: charging, HDMI, external 
> storage, printer/scanner, jtag (arduino and such are big these 
> days), optical disc (yes, these are still useful), adpators for 
> whatever new protocols and connectors inevitably come along, 
> etc. And that one-port-only means that you *also* need a hub in 
> addition to everything else. Rendering the whole mess 
> considerably less convenient than an actual all-in-one device: 
> the laptop.

Well, if you're docking the smartphone at your desk anyway, 
having a USB hub with several ports built into the dock is not a 
big deal.  As for on the go, yes, you'll need to bring some sort 
of adapter with you, but new connectors like USB Type-C are 
geared for that.

I don't think this ports issue moves the needle for most people, 
and most peripherals these days are moving to wireless anyway.

> > As for devs, they're a small percentage of the computer-using
> public,
>
> You're looking at it wrong (IMO): Devs (and non-dev power 
> users, don't forget there's a lot of them too) are a very 
> significant portion of modern-day desktop/laptop users. They're 
> the biggest reason why desktops/laptops haven't already been 
> marginalized. Therefore, if mobile is going to replace 
> desktop/laptop, it MUST support developer needs and support 
> them WELL, not just in a half-hearted way. We devs and power 
> users may be a minority, but we're a very large minority, and 
> we happen to be crucial to everything the everyday-Joe majority 
> users rely on. Mobile *cannot* marginalize us without throwing 
> away it's own chance at ubiquity.

I disagree, as I said above, I peg the group you're talking about 
at less than 5% of current desktop/laptop users.  And most devs 
are not really power users: some python/django dev is not going 
to be rocking a desktop as powerful as the Mac Pro anyway.  
They'd be fine with a tablet, like this guy:

http://bergie.iki.fi/blog/working-on-android/

> > But even devs, most of whom certainly aren't using massive
> rigs with
> > Xeons and 32 GBs of RAM, will make the switch.
>
> Right, that may very well happen. But again, that will require 
> mobile to adopt the remaining features that have been keeping 
> us on laptops/desktops, and thus become a hybrid. You're stance 
> seems to be that multi-window UI is just about the only one 
> left. I think there's much more than that.

I don't see it.

> > Not much left if you ask me, just multiwindow UIs, which
> could have been
> > done at least a year earlier, and transitioning the few
> remaining
> > desktop apps that haven't made the mobile transition yet.
> >
>
> Well, I guess that's where we disagree.

Yep, once multi-window UIs come to mobile, we'll see who's right. 
:)

> >> And I think that's the biggest question mark, as they seem
> quite
> >> loathe to accept that mobile-style (or really, iOS-style,
> which
> >> everyone else in mobile copied wholesale) isn't universally
> superior
> >> for everyone in every way. This attitude will prevent them
> from
> >> reaching parity and replacing desktops/laptops until for as
> long as
> >> they choose to cling to it. How long they'll cling to it is
> the question.
> >
> > "mobile-style" is a very vague term, presumably you're
> referring to the
> > prevailing mobile touch GUIs.
>
> That, plus the whole overall approach - gatekeeping, 
> lock-downs, nearly-zero buttons/keys, minimal I/O ports, 
> minimal expandability, neat-total vertical integration 
> (business-wise), etc. Ie, "The way Apple designed the iPhone".

Most of that is because those aren't things most users care 
about.  In fact, they prefer a more locked-down device, as long 
as it's more stable and doesn't get corrupted easily.  It's why 
most people buy sedans with automatic transmission, not a sports 
car with manual.

Now, of course there are better ways to do some of those.  You 
could have gatekeeping without it being done by one company, 
Apple.  They'll have to lock it down a little less when it's 
docked, for example, you'll have constant power and wouldn't want 
apps to be as aggressively killed.  As for expandability, that 
ship has sailed: most people don't care for it, which is why even 
Samsung ditched the SD card slot in the recent Galaxy S6.  I 
wouldn't call Android vertically integrated, maybe Samsung, but 
there are a lot of other component and software vendors.

That's a disparate grab bag of "mobile-style," but I'd say 
nothing there prevents mobile devices from killing off the 
desktop/laptop PC.

> >> But suppose, sooner or later, they've finally managed to
> improve
> >> enough to render the traditional line of desktops/laptops
> obsolete. It
> >> *WON'T* be a case of "mobile killed desktop". Because they
> will have,
> >> by necessity, BECOME just as much desktop as smartphone -
> the only
> >> difference being the lineage. It would be, in effect,
> exactly the same
> >> as laptops gaining mobile capabilities and mobile-friendly
> UI. Except,
> >> oh wait, that's happening too, see MS Surface Pro.
> >
> > That's what I detailed below: it's not the same and the
> failure of
> > Surface and other Windows two-in-ones shows that.
> >
>
> Well, people don't *see* it as the same.
>
> But no, there's plenty of other reasons for the troubles of 
> Surface and Surface-alikes. The most notable one being Win8 
> itself (for about a million reasons). And then the disconnect 
> between high-price and (for most of the surface models, 
> particularly the earlier ones) weak hardware specs compared to 
> even laptops that cost less (yes, surface pro's CPU is beefy, 
> but that's about it).
>
> It's *not* the approach itself that's wrong. They just haven't 
> quite gotten all the details right. Just like the current day 
> "connect keyboard to mobile, use as a desktop"...

I don't think the approach itself will work, though I agree that 
Win8 hurt it too.  One big problem with the all-in-ones so far is 
that the tablet portion is just too big and unwieldy to be used 
on its own, at 10.6" to 13".

> See, the same argument can be made the other way too: Aside 
> from a minority of techies such as yourself, nobody's actually 
> using mobile in the style of "connect a keyboard/mouse, use as 
> a desktop replacement". You could say it's been a failure *so 
> far*. But as you know, that doesn't mean the approach is wrong, 
> it just means there's still a few more details to be ironed 
> out. Same thing with Surface.

I'd say the difference is that your all-in-one approach has 
already been tried, with a lot of marketing behind it.  Whereas 
nobody has really pushed my approach, with most Android tablets 
not supporting multi-window yet.  I do agree that Win8 was 
botched though, maybe Win10 will do it better.

> > and the failure of such devices, both on the Android side
> > and especially on the Windows side, seems to show this.
>
> I strongly suspect that if you hold up bluetooth keyboard sales 
> up to the same "success/failure" standard as these devices 
> you're referring too, that they would look like "failures" too.

Yep, the bluetooth keyboard approach with Android tablets hasn't 
taken off yet either.  But they're still waiting on multi-window 
UIs, you can't expect it to do well before that.

> I really don't believe the problem there was that the idea was 
> wrong. I think the problem was that people *already* had their 
> laptop/desktop for their keyboard-oriented needs, and the 
> mobile systems just weren't yet ready to be a full replacement 
> for laptops/desktops. The idea was right, but the state of the 
> market was wrong. It was too early for it. But that will all 
> change if mobile improves and desktops/laptops become 
> increasingly marginalized.

Well, what's missing?  Mobile chips are powerful enough.  For me, 
it's just multi-window and the few apps that require it.  What 
else do you think mobile needs to improve?

> >  I simply prop
> > up my tablet on my desk on the side of something, whereas
> most will
> > likely just dock them in small holders, either just to hold
> them up or
> > to provide ports to connect to a larger monitor.
> >
>
> Ok, so it's more like re-inventing the desktop then, instead of 
> the laptop.

Both, as I said, most people using laptops don't need the 
keyboard to be physically attached.  So they'll just stick their 
dock on the table at the cafe, slot the tablet in, and start 
typing away on their bluetooth keyboard.

> Not if you're just reinventing the form factor by propping up 
> your monitor^H^H^H^H^H^H^Htablet and pulling out a 
> keyboard+mouse.
>
> It's just the particular lineage that (might) go away.

Heh, you're really reaching now. :) Most people wouldn't call a 
smartphone or tablet in a dock "reinventing the [desktop] form 
factor."

> >> No, as you already pointed out yourself, the hardware
> capabilities are
> >> converging as well.
> >
> > Heh, never said anything of the sort.
>
> Well, somebody was saying that mobile processors have been 
> getting closer and closer in power to laptops. Which I have to 
> strongly agree with. Maybe that wasn't you though.

By that rationale, since desktop chips nowadays are as powerful 
as mainframes from a decade ago, desktops are really just 
mainframes, right? ;) You and Kagamin are really reaching with 
these assertions.

> >> And then you have on one hand the whole "hooking up a
> keyboard/mouse"
> >> to a phone/tablet (and monitor too, HDMI-out has become
> pretty common
> >> on Android)...
> >
> > What is your point, that because we're still using keyboards
> and mice,
> > they're "converged?"
>
> Not "converged". "ConvergING" towards some point in between 
> traditional iPhone (and clones) and traditional laptop. And 
> yes, *partly* because connecting keyboard/mouse is not 
> something people have normally done with smartphones (at least 
> not typically). And also because the gap in processing power is 
> shrinking. And because you can now connect them to an external 
> monitor. And because they're gaining desktop UIs. Maybe some 
> other things too I haven't thought of off the top of my head.

Except that looking at that smartphone that has all those 
features that will allow them to kill off the desktop, they'll 
look exactly the same as smartphones do now.  Really, the only 
difference will be the addition of the multi-window UI 
capability, nothing else will have "converged."  I wouldn't call 
that convergence between iPhones and laptops, rather smartphones 
simply picking up yet one more feature that allows them to kill 
off the desktop/laptop PC.

> >  A car still moves on wheels yet nobody would say
> > it "converged" with a horse and carriage.  One feature, the
> wheels,
> > carried over, but most of it is completely different.
>
> There's really no parallel between that and what I'm talking 
> about.

Oh, it's pretty much the same. :) Replace wheels with 
multi-window UIs and that is exactly the point you're making.

> > I think that
> > since the underlying device, a smartphone, is fairly
> different from a
> > mainframe or a PC,
>
> How so? *You're* the one saying (even more than I am anyway) 
> that they are (or will soon be) suitable  replacements for PCs. 
> How do you reconcile that with now suddenly saying they're 
> different in a big enough way to be meaningful?

Because they're really only taking one feature from 
desktops/laptops, the multi-window UI, in order to replace them.  
Otherwise, they will be the same smartphones that they are now, 
which you don't call desktops.

> > it's far-fetched to say the devices are "hybrid" or
> > "converged," simply because they're all using similar input
> peripherals
> > when used at a desk.
>
> You've completely over-simplified my argument, and are now 
> objecting that your modified version of my argument isn't valid.

That certainly seemed to be one aspect of your argument, which 
you just repeated above.

> > But even that is only temporary, as voice and gesture
> recognition will
> > soon kill off those input peripherals too. :)
>
> God I hope not. :) Touchscreen mini-chicklet keyboards (not to 
> mention auto-correction) are already clunky and unreliable 
> enough.

I can't wait.  I've gotten fairly fast on a keyboard over the 
years, but I can't wait to just use voice.

> >> And on the other hand, you have laptops getting their
> mainboards moved
> >> to the upper-half and becoming detachable from the bottom
> half, and
> >> getting smaller, lighter, better battery life...
> >> That...is form-factor convergence.
> >
> > That might be actual hardware form-factor convergence, if
> anybody were
> > buying those two-in-ones, but almost nobody is.
> >
>
> Yet. Almost nobody is *yet*. Almost nobody is using their 
> "smartphone + keyboard" as a desktop/laptop replacement either. 
> Yet.
>
> But I think we both agree it's clear that where computing, at 
> the very least *should* go, is somewhere in between traditional 
> iPhone and traditional laptop. And mobiles and PCs are both 
> *trying* to reach for some point in-between.
>
> Unless ALL sides turn out to be wrong (which seems unlikely) 
> then naturally the "winner" will be something that does exist 
> somewhere in that middle-ground that everyone's reaching 
> towards. That "winner"'s lineage isn't particularly important 
> (except to the corporations directly involved), because it will 
> no longer be strictly a traditional smartphone nor traditional 
> laptop.

You keep asserting that there's some "middle-ground", when the 
truth is that mobile devices will just have to pick up one 
software feature to kill off the PC.  I don't think that's 
"in-between," as it will really be a traditional smartphone.

You and Kagamin seem really bent out of shape by the desktop 
being junked, for some personal reasons of your own, so I'll 
leave that "Is a smartphone really a desktop once it adds a 
multi-window UI" argument here.  I've made my viewpoint clear.