Mobile is the new PC and AArch64 is the new x64

[Dave Jones]

On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 04:47:11 UTC, Joakim wrote:
> On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 01:03:27 UTC, Dave Jones wrote:
>>> I know a lot of people who did, which explains the 28% drop 
>>> in PC sales since they peaked in 2011, the year after the 
>>> iPad came out. Many of those people who used to buy PCs have 
>>> switched to tablets and other mobile devices.
>>
>> Yet PC sales are up this year, mobile is down, and tablet 
>> sales have fallen for 3 years in a row.
>
> Eh, these are all mostly mature markets now, so slight 
> quarterly dips or gains don't matter much anymore. What does it 
> matter that PC sales were up 2-3% last quarter when 7 times as 
> many smartphones and mobile devices were sold in that same 
> quarter?

Some analysts have predicted that PC sales will plateau at some 
point and if that's where we're at now then 30% drop in shipments 
is not death of the market.


> I say that almost 30% drop in PC sales over the last 7 years is 
> mostly due to the rise of mobile.

I think a large part of it is that PCs got fast enough for most 
people about 7-10 years ago. So it was a combination of mobile, 
and people no longer needing to get newer faster machines. The 
upgrade cycle moved from "I need a newer faster computer" to 
"I'll wait till my current system is worn out". (For a lot of 
people anyway)


>> And just because there's been a trend for 5 or 6 years doesnt 
>> mean it will continue so inevitably.
>
> Sure, but these trends almost never reverse. ;)

It doesnt need to reverse for "the PC is dead" to be false.


>> I actually think most people would prefer a separate desktop 
>> and mobile device, whether that desktop is just the size of 
>> pack of cigarettes, or a big box with 5 fans in it.
>
> Why? Given how price-sensitive the vast majority of the 
> computing-buying public is- that excludes the Apple sheeple who 
> actually seem to get a hard-on from rising iPhone prices, all 
> the better for them to show how much money they've lucked into 
> by brandishing their "gold" iPhone ;) - I don't see most 
> willing to spend twice on two devices, that could be replaced 
> by just one. Until recently, they didn't have a choice, as you 
> couldn't use your mobile device as a desktop, but the 
> just-released devices I linked in the first post in this thread 
> are starting to change that.

Because for about £300 you can get an intel NUC system with 120GB 
SSD, which is more powerful and more upgradeable than your £700 
mobile device. And some people still want that. And because most 
people have more than one TV, some have multiple phones, phones 
and tablets, and desktops, and multiple games consoles. And they 
still use them all in different situations.

This "one device" thing is your preference and you're projecting 
it onto everyone else.


>> Yes you can bring up examples of people who made mistakes 
>> predicting the future but that works both ways. You're just as 
>> guilty of seeing a two points and drawing a straight line 
>> though them.
>
> Except none of these examples or my own prediction are based on 
> simple extrapolation between data points. Rather, we're 
> analyzing the underlying technical details and capabilities and 
> coming to different conclusions about whether the status quo is 
> likely to remain. So I don't think any of us are "guilty" of 
> your charge.

Of course you are, you're making predictions and assuming the 
trends will continue, you assume the technical details are all 
important. Im saying they are only part of it, that people have 
requirements / preferences outside of how powerful the device is. 
Lots of people were predicting ebooks would kill the real book 
market a few years back, turns out people still prefer to have an 
actual paper book to read, ebooks peaked a few years ago and real 
books have been in growth ever since. That was people seeing a 
trend and assuming it would continue just like you are.