Mobile is the new PC and AArch64 is the new x64

[RhyS]

On Thursday, 20 September 2018 at 10:02:05 UTC, Laurent Tréguier 
wrote:
> I apologize for the tone I'm using, I shouldn't jump on that 
> train.
> I'll clarify my position on this: I'm not completely absolutely 
> sure that smartphones will kill the PC market, but I do think 
> it's a possibility that just can't be dismissed.

The PC market will change but dying is a big word.

PC sales have dropped over the years for multiple reasons:

* Adoption of smartphones and tablets
* PC hardware getting so powerful, that people have little reason 
to upgrade
* Consoles taking over PC for couch gaming

But ...

PC are a integral part of our daily business life. This is a 
market where PC decline is hard simply because the flexibility 
that PCs offer.

You can do a lot with a smartphone and tablet but a lot of those 
tasks are way harder or time consuming then doing them on a PC.

I can install termux on my phone but no way i will program for 
hours on a 6" screen. Let alone all the IDE and debugging tools i 
that are not available ( lets not start Vim discussions, thank 
you very much ).

You can attach a keyboard to your phone, a bigger screen to your 
phone and you have half a PC. But you are still missing the 
software...

We will probably move to a hybrid solution like this in the 
future, where people can use their smartphones as PCs ( with 
attachments for productivity ) but its a LONG road to get even 
close to the same level that a basic PC offers in terms of power 
and flexibility.

A smartphone is nothing else then a smaller tablet, what is 
nothing else then a less flexible laptop, what is nothing else 
then a compacter and not flexible PC.

Just basic concept like multi windows handling is like a alien 
idea on smartphones and badly done. Even Windows 3.1 was more 
capable on this part. Currently smartphones are not designed for 
the creativity and flexibility you need.

Can they become this? Sure ... but not with the current mobile 
operating systems. Android is a resource hog ( JVM thank you very 
much ) that uses more memory then my Windows 10 installation 
while offering less flexibility! Microsoft tried and fell flat on 
their face.

Its possible we may see devices that are plenty powerful to do 
day to day tasks and see PCs become specialized tools requiring 
(high paid) experts. But smartphones will always be limited with 
cooling and power usage compared to a full blown pc. The only way 
to mitigate this is by having servers offload intensive tasks.

I do not see PCs dying out, just changing in nature. A smartphone 
is a PC, just one that is less flexible and is power limited 
because of its size. And that law will always be true. If you can 
put X power in a small device, you can put X * 10 in a bigger 
device, you can put X * 100 in a even bigger device.

And do not be so sure that ARM is the future... I have several 
NUCs around here and those things are darn powerful ( think 8 
year old PC ) these days, with a very low power usage ( 6W ). And 
Risk-V is coming up...

The PC world as we know, never stops changing. But predictions 
that X will die are wrong. They simply evolve. A 
Smartphone/Tablet is a PC, so anybody making claims how PCs are 
dying, is simply stating that PCs are simple evolving into 
different forms.

And by the way, smartphone sales are also starting to plateau 
because people are less fast on replacing their phones these 
days. If it was not for the battery dying on people, people will 
hold on for years these days. Wait until we have electric cars 
and those batteries *ha*... forced redundant, you bet your ass on 
it. So do not be so happy about PCs changing because the change 
is not in the interest of the consumer. No reuse, forced 
redundancy, ... Great for companies, bad for consumers like us.